10

Obama is a Buy; Clinton is a Sell
Here's Why

\/ Below: The Delegate Math

By CNN.com's John Helton

If Ohio and Texas weren't already must-win states for Sen. Hillary Clinton, they certainly are now.

Sen. Barack Obama is swaying away the core parts of Sen. Hillary Clinton's voter base.

Sen. Barack Obama continued his winning streak since Super Tuesday two weeks ago, picking up his ninth and tenth states in a row -- Wisconsin and Hawaii.

But as significant as Obama's accelerating momentum is how he is increasingly swaying voters that Clinton could count on at the beginning of February.

While Obama has been solidifying his base of younger, college-educated, higher-paid voters, he has steadily been chipping away Clinton's base of blue-collar, older, working-class voters.

On Tuesday, Obama captured 53 percent of Wisconsin's white voters compared to 41 percent of those voting on Super Tuesday. He won 48 percent of women in Wisconsin compared to 41 percent on Super Tuesday.

He increased his standing with white seniors by 8 points, from 31 percent to 39 percent since Super Tuesday. He split the non-college-graduate vote 50-50 with Clinton compared to getting 42 percent of it on Super Tuesday.

Obama won almost half of the Catholic vote compared to a third of it two weeks ago, and he did the same thing with the rural vote.

He also seems to be taking the economy away from Clinton as an issue. He won 44 percent of those voters who said that was the most important issue for them on Super Tuesday, but he won 55 percent of those voters on Tuesday.

Obama also scored a projected win in the Hawaii Democratic caucuses, the state where he was born and still has family. There were 20 delegates at stake in that race.

Heading into Wisconsin, most thought the contest was a toss-up. Obama's sweeping win there Tuesday can't be encouraging for the Clinton camp heading into Ohio as there are a lot of similarities between the blue-collar, Rust Belt states.

If the demographic trends continue, it doesn't look good in Texas. Obama won the Latino vote in Maryland and Virginia last week, a segment of the electorate that was solidly in the Clinton camp at the beginning of the race.

Polls in Texas show the contest there being a dead heat, but they showed the same thing in Wisconsin. The two Democratic candidates will both be in Texas Thursday night for a live debate on CNN at 8 p.m. ET.

Clinton's post-primary speech on Tuesday might be setting the tone for the next two weeks. She says Obama is offering rhetoric while she's offering solutions.

On Tuesday, she told a crowd in Ohio that the Democratic race is "about picking a president who relies not just on words, but on work."

Obama was also the focus of part of Republican Sen. John McCain's victory speech on Tuesday. While not mentioning Obama by name, he suggested the general election would be a choice between his experience and the "confused leadership of an inexperienced candidate."


The Delegate Math

(Source: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/)

After last night’s contests, here’s where things stand: The NBC News Hard Count is Obama 1,168, Clinton 1,018. There are 53 delegates unallocated, including 19 in MD, 10 each in CO and GA, 6 in WI, 4 in HI, and one each in DC, TN, NY and IL. We estimate a conservative 27-26 split here.

The Superdelegate Count: Clinton 257 versus Obama 185. That’s a grand total of: Obama 1,355, Clinton 1,276.

Counting only the superdelegates he has now, plus his pledged delegates, Obama needs 65% of remaining PLEDGED delegates to hit the magic 2025 number. Reaching that is probably unrealistic, but when you add in the unaffiliated 353 superdelegates (76 of whom are not yet known yet and won't be appointed until April, May and June), his magic percentage number is down to 48%.

On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% -- SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK.